Sub-national HIV Estimates in Priority Populations

Identifying places and populations at highest risk of HIV, in order to strengthen plans for differentiated HIV prevention

To better understand HIV incidence of priority groups at sub-national level, UNAIDS with the support of several partners developed the Sub-national HIV Estimates in Priority Populations tool (SHIPP) which disaggregates HIV incidence and population sizes by age group, sex, location and HIV risk. The tool distinguishes four categories of risk:

  • Not sexually active 
  • Sexually active, one cohabiting partner
  • Non-regular sexual partner(s)
  • Key populations

The SHIPP Tool draws from a combination of survey data and mathematical model outputs from 34 countries in Africa, specifically: Angola, Benin, Burundi, Burkina Faso, Botswana, Central African Republic, Cote d’Ivoire, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Congo, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Liberia, Lesotho, Mali, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Eswatini, Chad, Togo, Tanzania, Uganda, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

The Tool is pre-populated with the latest Country approved HIV national and Subnational estimates and uses estimates of the prevalence of behaviours from the most recent Demographic Health Surveys (DHS) and/or AIDS Indicator Surveys and/or Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) surveys in each country (by district and age group).

UNAIDS will update the tool as part of the annual HIV estimates process. For questions, please send an email to: estimates@unaids.org  

Image: An example of the  tables and visualisations automatically produced by the SHIPP Tool. 

The SHIPP Tool outputs the following data disaggregated by sex, age, sexual behaviour and sub-national location: 

  • HIV negative population sizes
  • Estimated new HIV infections
  • HIV incidence rates
  • Behavioural proportions (percentage of age group in each behavioural risk  category) 

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